The future of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has come under fresh scrutiny following two warnings from people who knew the late Raila Odinga and understood his political influence. Former Raila aide Dennis Onyango warned that ODM could struggle to survive beyond the 2027 General Election if its nominations were mismanaged.
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Days later, COTU Secretary-General Francis Atwoli issued a similarly worrying warning, saying the party could disappear if its members failed to protect Raila’s political legacy.
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1. What Dennis Onyango said before Atwoli’s latest warning
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On Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Dennis Onyango, Raila Odinga’s longtime aide, warned that ODM’s survival beyond 2027 would depend heavily on how the party handles its internal nominations.
Onyango argued that Raila had wanted to build a political institution capable of surviving beyond his leadership. However, he warned that the party could fail to achieve that ambition if nomination disputes were mishandled.
His strongest warning was:
“If they mismanage the nomination, I don’t think ODM will go beyond 2027.
Onyango also explained that Raila had previously been able to calm disagreements, persuade unsuccessful aspirants to remain in ODM and prevent internal disputes from splitting the party. Without Raila, he argued, the party would need credible nominations and leaders capable of maintaining unity.
He nevertheless said ODM could remain politically relevant into 2032 if it secured substantial seats in the 2027 elections.
2. What Francis Atwoli said days later
On Friday, October 16, 2026, Francis Atwoli issued another warning about ODM’s future, suggesting that the party could disappear if its members failed to safeguard Raila’s political legacy.
Atwoli drew an analogy from Luhya cultural practices, arguing that when a prominent person dies, their legacy and possessions may be lost if nobody takes responsibility for protecting them and learning from them.
His direct warning was:
“If they are not careful, there will be no ODM.”
Atwoli, a close ally of Raila, argued that ODM needed people within the party who could protect the political legacy left by the former prime minister.
3. How the two warnings compare
| Dennis Onyango | Francis Atwoli |
|---|---|
| Spoke on October 14, 2026. | Spoke on October 16, 2026. |
| Focused on the 2027 nominations and election results. | Focused on protecting Raila’s legacy and the party’s survival. |
| Warned that ODM might not survive beyond 2027 if nominations were mishandled. | Warned that ODM could disappear if its members were not careful. |
